We consider the U.S. economy to be extremely strong with a very low probability of a recession in the near future. Gross domestic product (GDP) grew at an annual rate of 3.5% this past quarter. We’ve seen positive job growth for the last 96 consecutive months with unemployment dropping to 3.7%, its lowest level since 1969. In addition, consumer and government spending has been strong, and after-tax corporate profits are near all-time highs.
Welcome to the Spring 2024 edition of Towneley’s newsletter. The theme is "Spring Cleaning: Getting organized with your finances." We will focus on taking easy steps to maximize your finances in 2024. Thank you for taking the time to read this issue, and we hope you and your family are well!
2023 was a year of resilience in the face of economic and market challenges. Despite a banking crisis, inflationary pressures, Fed tightening, weakening economic data, and stagnant corporate earnings, the Russell 3000 Index finished the year up 26%, with the MSCI ACWI-Ex-U.S. (International markets) Index up 15.6%. The bond market also ended the year in positive territory, with the Barclays Intermediate Gov/Corp Index up 5.2%. This marked the first positive year for fixed income since 2020.
Welcome to the Fall 2023 edition of the Towneley newsletter. In this edition, you will hear from our investment team in a frequently asked questions format.
On the morning of Saturday, October 7, Hamas launched a surprise attack on Israel killing hundreds and plunging the region into further conflict. Israel immediately declared war on Hamas, responded with air strikes, and called up 300,000 army reservists. The U.S. and many U.N. Security Council members have condemned the attacks by Hamas, which is designated a terrorist organization by many major countries, and are providing assistance to Israel including the positioning of a U.S. aircraft carrier in the Eastern Mediterranean. The situation is evolving and we all hope for a return to stability in the region, and especially for the continued safety of civilians and any friends and family that might be impacted.
On the back of a robust labor market and declining inflation, global markets experienced a strong first half to the year, with the Russell 3000 increasing 16.2%, MSCI ACWI-EX US up 9.5% and Bloomberg Aggregate Bond Index up 2.1%. The story for the year has been the resurgence of technology stocks following a challenging 2022, with the “Magnificent Seven” leading the market higher and accounting for roughly ¾ of the gains YTD.
The federal debt limit is again in the news as the country rapidly approaches a critical deadline on June 1. Investors are understandably nervous about Washington failing to reach an agreement.
Following a challenging 2022, markets rebounded during the first quarter of 2023. Domestic equities rallied 7.2% and non-U.S. equities earned 6.6%.
2023 couldn't arrive quickly enough, as one of the worst years in U.S. stock and bond market history came to a close. 2022 will be remembered for the following events:
During the third quarter, the Bear returned to Wall Street after a nearly 13-year hiatus, during which the S&P 500 Index logged a whopping 587.33% cumulative return.
The only sectors and asset classes that avoided the market carnage during the first quarter of 2022 were energy stocks, commodities (other than precious metals), and Treasury bills.
Investors faced historic challenges during the first quarter as domestic equity markets fell into correction territory following an exceptional two years of performance.
As we ring in 2022, we can't help but feel like we're facing a rerun of the past.
